Polls, betting odds and markets all predict a win for Remain – but a narrow one.
On Thursday 23 June, Britain goes to the polls to answer the question “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” Early on, polling showed a consistent majority for the EU, suggesting an easy win for Remain. But the question of who will win the referendum is now incredibly close.
Early Brexit predictions have been tested by a series of poll results putting Leave ahead. That gap has narrowed in the latest EU polls, but the markets have reacted nervously to the possibility of Leave. On the other hand, bookmakers have been steadfast for Remain: the latest Brexit odds show a vote for staying in the EU is still the favourite outcome.
Meanwhile, pundits have weighed in with their own positions on who will win the referendum. Read on to see the full range of Brexit predictions, and check back on Friday 24 June to see who called it correctly.
Polls
EU referendum polls [link to latest polls article] have shown a consistent trend to erode an early lead for Remain – and in the penultimate week of campaigning, three published polls gave Leave a substantial margin of victory.
Does that mean Leave is guaranteed success? Not necessarily. As the 2015 General election showed, polling can go wrong, and the recent good news for leave could prove to be merely outliers.
Stephen Bush points out that turnoutwillplayabigpartintheultimateresult: Leave has the edge among older voters, but Remain is popular among affluent voters who are among the most likely to vote. Add to that the “don’t knows” who have yet to make up their minds (9 per cent according to YouGov) and a tendency for voters to revert to the status quo, and could be headed for a narrow win.
Brexit prediction: A win for Remain (but a narrow one)
Odds
The latest Brexit odds show that bookmakers have remained consistent throughout the campaign, with Remain still the favourite.
Does that matter? Odds aren’t necessarily a good guide to the outcome, so Brexiteers can take heart.
Brexit prediction: A win for Remain
Markets
Financial markets have proven highly sensitive to poll moves. The OECD Brexit report warned of dire economic consequences for Britain in the event of leaving the EU, and public opinion shifts to Leave were followed by heavy falls for the pound. It regained strength at the end of last week – but markets are likely to be volatile until the result comes in (and, if Leave wins, beyond).
Brexit prediction: A win for Remain